Aurora Forecast for West Coast of NZ
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Little to no auroral activity.
Minimal auroral activity likely, possibly only a faint glow detectable by professional cameras.
Clear auroral activity visible in camera/phone images, potentially visible to the naked eye under ideal conditions.
Faint auroral glow potentially visible to the naked eye, possibly with some color.
Good chance of seeing auroral color with the naked eye (depending on individual eyesight and viewing conditions).
High probability of significant auroral substorms, potentially displaying a wide range of colors and dynamic activity overhead or in the northern sky.
The higher the better, for all of these stats, except IMF Bz. Bz needs to be a negative number to support growth of Hemispheric Power. You can see the Bz strength by the red line on the graph below.
Current Solar Conditions for Aurora
Hemispheric Power
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Solar Wind Speed
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Solar Wind Density
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IMF Bt (Total Strength)
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IMF Bz (North/South)
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Whole of New Zealand Aurora Forecast - Not taking into account lunar or sun influence. This is PRE-RELEASE and is in TESTING. Please provide feedback here.
Provide feedback here - V1.11 - 15/05/2025
This applies to the next two hours. You will have to be patient! This doesn't mean right NOW, just at some point over the next two hours.
This two-hourly (ish) forecast is derived from a proprietary algorithm that considers several key factors influencing auroral visibility over the West Coast of New Zealand. These factors include lunar illumination, astronomical darkness, hemispheric power, and the Bt/Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. This model provides a more localized and accurate prediction for the West Coast of NZ compared to the broader-coverage NOAA Ovation model.
Disclaimer: This aurora forecast is not a guarantee that you will see the aurora but rather an indication of potential activity. The aurora is a natural phenomenon, and forecasting methodologies are continually being refined. This forecast does not function as a live substorm magnetometer and is not indicative of real-time auroral activity. Instead, it provides an estimate of potential activity over the next two hours.
Disclaimer: This aurora forecast is not a guarantee that you will see the aurora but rather an indication of potential activity. The aurora is a natural phenomenon, and forecasting methodologies are continually being refined. This forecast does not function as a live substorm magnetometer and is not indicative of real-time auroral activity. Instead, it provides an estimate of potential activity over the next two hours.
Want to learn more about our Aurora journey? Pick up a copy of our BRAND NEW Book!
See the current cloud cover over the West Coast thanks to Windy.com.
Queenstown RoundShot Camera is a fantastic resource for seeing if aurora is happening now! If you can see colour here, you may see colour on the back of your camera!
What does the percentage mean?
- Below 10% - 😞: Little to no auroral activity.
- 10% - 25% - 😐: Minimal auroral activity likely, possibly only a faint glow detectable by professional cameras.
- 25% - 40% - 😊: Clear auroral activity visible in camera/phone images, potentially visible to the naked eye under ideal conditions.
- 40% - 50% - 🙂: Faint auroral glow potentially visible to the naked eye, possibly with some color.
- 50% - 80% - 😀: Good chance of seeing auroral color with the naked eye (depending on individual eyesight and viewing conditions).
- 80%+ - 🤩: High probability of significant auroral substorms, potentially displaying a wide range of colors and dynamic activity overhead or in the northern sky.
Data provided courtesy of NOAA - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Data processed on our own servers to create forecast.
Data processed on our own servers to create forecast.